TRAI recently published the Subscriber base Report for all Telecom operators in India for the month of June'19. While it was widely reported that Airtel & Vodafone-Idea together lost over 4 million subscribers and Jio gained over 8 million subscribers in June'19, there is a lot more that one needs to know. Vodafone Idea alone lost 4.1 million subscribers in June'19, while Airtel's loss was negligible at less than 30,000 subscribers.
The above numbers are for Gross Subscriber base. I don't give too much importance to the Gross Subscriber numbers. The more important numbers to look at are the VLR (Visitor Location Register) subscriber numbers, i.e. the subscribers which were actually Active on the operator's network. This number is what matters more as these Active users are the ones that will generate Traffic as well as Revenues for the company.
Vodafone Idea has been consistently losing VLR subscribers ever since their merger took place in August'18. From over 400 million VLR subscribers in September'18, it is down to 322 million in June'19. A major chunck of this number will be the subscribers who were holding sim cards of both operators before the merger. Another larger number of subscribers leaving the network will be those who were using it as a Secondary sim, only for Income calls, and were recently forced to do minimum recharge of Rs.35 every 28 days to continue availing service.
Till March'19, Vodafone Idea's overall VLR % was over 93, which is a very healthy figure and also in the normal range for both Vodafone India and Idea Cellular, before merger. But over the last 3 months, i.e. by June'19, it has dropped to just 84%. Apart from the above 2 reasons, this drop in VLR % could also be due to the rapid Network Integration work that is going on at hundreds of towers at any given point. Service disruption for some time for several subscribers at so many locations will also affect the VLR numbers for the operator.
If we look at the overall change in VLR numbers for Vodafone Idea since March'19, the operator lost 9.1 mn subscribers in March'19, another 26 million in April'19, 8.6 million in May'19 and 11.2 million in June'19. While these numbers clearly suggest that Vodafone Idea continues to lose VLR subscribers at a rapid pace, there are lot of things worth noting when we look at Circle-wise VLR subscriber number changes. Last night I sat down to note down the number of circles that are losing or gaining VLR subscribers, in different Ranges like 0 to 0.2 million, 0.2 to 0.5 million, 0.5 to 1 million, 1 to 2 million and >2 million. Some very interesting developments can be noted from this Data that I have collated.
Vodafone Idea had reported a loss of VLR subscribers in all 22 circles for the months of March and April'19. Vodafone Idea had lost over 26 million VLR subscribers in April'19, when 11 circles had reported a loss of over 1 million users each. In May'19, things were much better with just 1 circle reporting a loss of over 1 million users and 1 circle even reported a gain of VLR users. The overall loss of VLR users was moderated to 8.6 million in May'19. But the number is again higher at 11.2 million in June'19. But the culprits are just 2 circles: Bihar (4 mn loss) and Andhra Pradesh (2.2 million loss). Apart from this, things seem to be improving for Vodafone Idea as a total of 6 circles have reported a Gain of VLR users during June'19. All these 6 circles (Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Mumbai, Punjab and UP (West)) have reported a decent improvement in VLR %, resulting in a gain of VLR subscribers even when their Gross Subscribers numbers are down. What this suggests is that as Vodafone Idea's network integration work results in an improvement in Network's performance in terms of Coverage, Capacity & Speed, we could see more & more circles reporting positive change in VLR % and hence a gain of VLR users, in the coming months.
My take is that the worst in terms of loss of VLR subscribers is behind for Vodafone Idea. Things are set to improve in the coming months. In fact these are very interesting times for the company as we could start seeing first signs of benefits of their Integrated large-capacity network sometime soon, possibly from September'19 onwards. I will keep updating this Data as and when TRAI publishes the Subscriber numbers for every passing month.
Do Share your thoughts on this report or Views on the points discussed. Awaiting your Comments.
The above numbers are for Gross Subscriber base. I don't give too much importance to the Gross Subscriber numbers. The more important numbers to look at are the VLR (Visitor Location Register) subscriber numbers, i.e. the subscribers which were actually Active on the operator's network. This number is what matters more as these Active users are the ones that will generate Traffic as well as Revenues for the company.
Vodafone Idea has been consistently losing VLR subscribers ever since their merger took place in August'18. From over 400 million VLR subscribers in September'18, it is down to 322 million in June'19. A major chunck of this number will be the subscribers who were holding sim cards of both operators before the merger. Another larger number of subscribers leaving the network will be those who were using it as a Secondary sim, only for Income calls, and were recently forced to do minimum recharge of Rs.35 every 28 days to continue availing service.
Till March'19, Vodafone Idea's overall VLR % was over 93, which is a very healthy figure and also in the normal range for both Vodafone India and Idea Cellular, before merger. But over the last 3 months, i.e. by June'19, it has dropped to just 84%. Apart from the above 2 reasons, this drop in VLR % could also be due to the rapid Network Integration work that is going on at hundreds of towers at any given point. Service disruption for some time for several subscribers at so many locations will also affect the VLR numbers for the operator.
If we look at the overall change in VLR numbers for Vodafone Idea since March'19, the operator lost 9.1 mn subscribers in March'19, another 26 million in April'19, 8.6 million in May'19 and 11.2 million in June'19. While these numbers clearly suggest that Vodafone Idea continues to lose VLR subscribers at a rapid pace, there are lot of things worth noting when we look at Circle-wise VLR subscriber number changes. Last night I sat down to note down the number of circles that are losing or gaining VLR subscribers, in different Ranges like 0 to 0.2 million, 0.2 to 0.5 million, 0.5 to 1 million, 1 to 2 million and >2 million. Some very interesting developments can be noted from this Data that I have collated.
My take is that the worst in terms of loss of VLR subscribers is behind for Vodafone Idea. Things are set to improve in the coming months. In fact these are very interesting times for the company as we could start seeing first signs of benefits of their Integrated large-capacity network sometime soon, possibly from September'19 onwards. I will keep updating this Data as and when TRAI publishes the Subscriber numbers for every passing month.
Do Share your thoughts on this report or Views on the points discussed. Awaiting your Comments.
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