Thursday, July 18, 2019

Yes Bank's June'19 Shareholding: Some green signals.

The April to June'19 quarter has probably been the worst quarter faced by Yes Bank at the stock market. From a level of around Rs.275 on 1st April 2019, Yes Bank's share price collapsed nearly 64% to end around the Rs.100 mark at the end of June 2019. The price fall started a few days before the announcement of Q4FY19 Results, as if some people had got a whiff of the huge Provisioning and the resulting Net Loss that the Bank was to declare.

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Yes Bank's share price has continued to fall more & more after the announcement of Q4FY19 numbers. Hence it was quite evident that there must have been massive changes in Shareholding structure of different segments of investors. Following table shows the Shareholding pattern of various segments over the last 5 quarters:

There has been no significant change in Promoters Shareholding over the last 5 quarters. But there has been significant changes in the Shareholding of other 2 segments over the last 5 quarters.

Institutional holdings were at a high of 67.67% in June'18, which dropped to 57.7% in December'2018. During this period, Yes Bank's share price dropped from Rs.330 levels to Rs.180 levels. By March'2019, the number again increased to 61.31%, which resulted in the share price rebounding to about Rs.275 levels. And now during June'19 quarter, their holdings have dropped to a low of 50.72%, resulting into a massive share price erosion of 64% during the quarter.

In the Institutional category of Investors, the FPIs are the largest holders and also the biggest influencers of Yes Bank's share price. Out of the 17% reduction in Institutional shareholding between June 2018 to June 2019, the FPIs contributed to about 9% drop. Mutual Funds contributed to 5% reduction and Insurance Companies the rest. Amongst the Mutual Funds, Birla Sunlife, HDFC AMC and Reliance MF have been the biggest sellers. From Insurance companies, ICICI Prudential was the biggest seller. LIC of India has not just held on to it's stake in Yes Bank, in fact it even increased it by 0.8% in December 2018 quarter to take it to almost 8.9% now. LIC is probably the single largest non-Promoter shareholder in Yes Bank currently.

Considering the volatility in FPIs buying & selling pattern of Yes Bank's shares, they could very well start buying again this quarter, especially after Yes Bank's Q1FY20 numbers clearly suggest that the situation is not at all as bad as the market was fearing during the previous quarter.

Coming to Non-Institutional Shareholders, the Small Retail shareholders are clearly doing exactly opposite of what the FPIs are doing. These shareholders buy when the FPIs are selling and they sell when the FPIs are buying. That means they buy when the price is dropping and they sell when the price is rising. This lot of shareholders seem to be doing the clever thing. Between June 2018 and June 2019, their shareholding has increased from 6.27% to 18.72%.

A few Corporates too seem to have got interested in buying a stake in Yes Bank as the price was falling. This category has seen it's shareholding increase from 2.53% to 4.63% in just the June 2019 quarter. This is a positive sign as these shareholders are likely to be better informed investors and they know the risks & rewards of investing in Yes Bank's shares in the current situation. NRIs too have increased their holding from 0.89% to 1.21% in the quarter gone by.

But the biggest positive sign is the fact that Employees of Yes Bank have acquired nearly 3.5 crore shares of the Bank, which is 1.53% stake in the Bank, during the June 2019 quarter. A total of over 600 employees of Yes Bank have together acquired over 3.55 crore shares during the quarter. This is the single biggest signal that things are not as bad with the Bank as the market is fearing or the rumour mills are spreading.

It will be interesting to see how the share price of Yes Bank behaves in this quarter and how the shareholding pattern evolves.

Do Share your thoughts on this report or Views on the points discussed. Awaiting your Comments.

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