Monday, November 9, 2015

Reliance Power Ltd. - Q2 result on expected lines. Stock started moving finally!!

Reliance Power announced Q2 numbers exactly as per expectations, though slightly better EBITDA and Cash Profit numbers. The following charts shows the progress of Reliance Power's Quarterly numbers since Sept'2013 Quarter to Sept'2015 Quarter:

The Quarterly numbers clearly show the step up since June'2015 quarter when the company started consolidating Sasan UMPP's numbers. This is expected to be the biggest step-up in numbers the company will see in many future quarters. Reliance Power's numbers will see more small step-ups when the company's Solar or Hydro Power projects will start adding to the company's consolidated numbers. A 100 MW Concentrated Solar project is ready and the company should soon start consolidating it's numbers. Then there is the 700 MW Solar PV project being implemented in Rajasthan, which will come on stream by the end of next fiscal. Reliance Power also has quite a few Hydro Power projects totaling over 5000 MW capacity, in it's pipeline, but their exact status is not known.

Reliance Power is expected to report an EPS of close to Rs.5 for FY'16, while the Cash-EPS is expected to be over Rs.9.50/-. Considering the strong Cash position of the company after having successfully commissioned it's largest Greenfield project, Reliance Power has today announced it's Maiden Interim Dividend of Re.1 per share. This is a big development for the company's shareholders. It is the first dividend from the company in it's over 7 years of listed history. This is a good start. The interim dividend will consume a little less than 25% of the company's H1 FY'16's Cash Profit and about 40% of the H1's Net Profit. The company will need some capital for CAPEX required for new projects. So we cannot expect very high dividend payouts, even 20% of Annual Profits will be good enough. But Reliance Power's annual dividends will see gradual improvement in line with improvement in annual profits.


Have a look at Reliance Power's share price movement. From a high of over Rs.110 in June'2014, the stock was continuously falling. The stock seems to have made a bottom during the recent Aug-Sept market correction. After hitting lows of about Rs.33, the stock has seen a smart rally to around levels close to Rs.50/-. The stock is attempting to cross it's 200-Days Moving Average now. Once successful, we can expect Reliance Power's stock price to get into an uptrend and march towards the 3-digit mark over the next 6-12 months.

Happy Investing!! 

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