Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Bharti Airtel Ltd - Stock price chart is bullish.

Bharti Airtel's stock price movement over the last few months has clearly shown signs of the end of a downtrend and a start of a gradual uptrend. From a low of under Rs.240 in August'12, the company's stock price moved up to a high of about Rs.370 in January'13. But after that it dropped again to about Rs.275 levels. But the stock has taken good support at Rs.275 to 280 levels more than twice in the last 3-4 months. The overall newsflow for the telecom sector as a whole has been turning over the last 2 quarters. Bharti Airtel too has seen some positive developments happen.

First and foremost the reduction in overall competition in the Indian Telecom market. Then the Q-o-Q drop in the company's Net Profits has stopped. Business volumes & revenues have seen a smart Q-o-Q increase in March'13 quarter. Bharti Airtel received one of the biggest PE investments from Qatar for 5% stake in the company. The Rs.6700 odd crores raised from that deal were used to bring down the Debt. This will certainly help in reducing the quarterly interest outgo in the coming quarters & boost Net Profits & Free Cash Flow generation.

Bharti Airtel's promoters too have purchased lakhs of shares of the company from the open market at close to Rs.280-285 levels. All these are positive signs for the company & it's investors. The stock price too should react to all these developments in the coming days, weeks or months. From the stock price chart below, it can be seen that there is some bit of resistance at about Rs.325 to 328 levels. The stock price needs to cross this level convincingly & stay above that for a few days to confirm the uptrend. Until that happens, it could continue to hover between Rs.280 to Rs.325 levels. My personal opinion is that it should be breaking that resistance soon. Once it does that, the upmove could take it to Rs.370 or even Rs.400 levels, before it corrects again. Overall I think the medium to long term trend is very positive for Bharti Airtel. The stock prices of other telecom companies like Idea Cellular & Reliance COmmunications have already seen huge run-ups in the recent couple of months. Bharti Airtel has lagged both of them. But Airtel's big upmove shouldn't be far.

Airtel price chart - 17Jul13

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